Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave

Posted: 2021-11-02 19:00:00
During 2020, Victoria was the Australian state hardest hit by COVID-19, but was successful in controlling its second wave through aggressive policy interventions. We calibrated a detailed compartmental model of Victoria's second wave to multiple geographically-structured epidemic time-series indicators. We achieved a good fit overall and for individual health services through a combination of time-varying processes, including case detection, population mobility, school closures, physical distancing and face covering usage. Estimates of the risk of death in those aged ≥75 and of hospitalisation were higher than international estimates, reflecting concentration of cases in high-risk settings. We estimated significant effects for each of the calibrated time-varying processes, with estimates for the individual-level effect of physical distancing of 37.4% (95%CrI 7.2-56.4%) and of face coverings of 45.9% (95%CrI 32.9-55.6%). That the multi-faceted interventions led to the dramatic reversal in the epidemic trajectory is supported by our results, with face coverings likely particularly important.

参考サイト PubMed: covid-19


5月 20, 2020 バイオアソシエイツ


2020年5月8日にCMAJ(Canadian Medical Association Journal)でオンライン公開された多国間の調査によると、気温と緯度は新型コロナウイルス( COVID-19 )の蔓延とは関連していないようだ。しかし学校の閉鎖やその他の公衆衛生対策がプラスの効果をもたらしているという。 この論文は「COVID-19パンデミックに対する気候と公衆衛生の介入の影響:前向きコホート研究(Impact of climate and public health interventions on…

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