The risk of COVID-19 transmission in heterogeneous age groups and effective vaccination strategy in Korea: a mathematical modeling study

Posted: 2021-09-15 19:00:00
Objectives: COVID-19 Vaccines have been developed and introduced in several countries since the pandemic COVID-19 occurred in 2020. In Korea, vaccination began on February 26, 2021, and the object is forming a herd immunity in 2021. In this study, the possibility and conditions of herd immunity (keeping reproductive number consistently below 1) are analyzed using a mathematical modeling, considering both vaccination and social-distancing-based scenarios. Methods: The total population was divided into five age groups (0-17, 18-29, 30-59, 60-74, and 75 years old or older). Maximum likelihood estimation was used to estimate the transmission rate between each age group, and the estimated transmission rate matrix was applied into the mathematical model including vaccination. The model was simulated to reflect the actual epidemic situation until May 25, 2021. Since then, simulations are extended until December 31, 2021, with various strategies for vaccination and social distancing. Results: Simulation considering vaccinating 70% of the population showed that reproductive number becomes consistently below 1 in August if the third-wave-like situation does not reoccur during the eased distancing phase. However, it was also observed that in the scenario considering the priority of the elderly, reproductive number becomes consistently below 1 in the end of 2021 if the third-wave-like situation reoccurs. Conclusion: Model simulations showed both stable and aggravated situations. The results of best and worst scenarios highlight the need for adequate social distancing controls along with sufficient vaccine supply, in order to simultaneously and effectively achieve the mortality minimization and keeping reproductive number consistently below 1 in 2021. Keywords: COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccine; Mathematical Model; Maximum Likelihood Estimation; Republic of Korea; Social Distancing.

参考サイト PubMed: covid-19

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7月 06, 2021 バイオアソシエイツ


バンダービルト大学医療センター(VUMC)の研究者らが開発した細胞貫通ペプチドは、細菌やウイルスの感染によって生じ、しばしば致命的となる敗血症性ショックを動物モデルで予防することができたことが報告された。この研究成果は、2021年6月7日にScientific Reports誌のオンライン版に掲載され、COVID-19を含む微生物感染に対する制御不能な炎症反応による重篤な合併症や死亡のリスクが最も高い患者を保護する方法につなる可能性がある。…

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