Effect of Physical Distancing on Covid-19 Incidence in Brazil: Does the Strictness of Mandatory Rules Matter?


Posted: 2021-09-11 19:00:00
Purpose: This study aims to examine the association between physical distancing measures and COVID-19 incidence among Brazilian states. Methods: We divided the methodology was divided into three steps. In the first step, we used nationwide GPS daily data to estimate country and state-level physical distancing and examined the association with COVID-19 incidence through a GAM model. Secondly, using PNAD COVID 19 data, a cluster analysis categorized the Brazilian states into different categories of physical distancing policies promoting adoption and political inclination of their governments. Finally, through a Poisson Regression Model, we examined the association of state physical distancing with variables related to the socio-economic situation, test coverage and early adoption of policies promoting physical distancing of each state. Results: Physical distancing effects on reduction of COVID-19 spread are heterogeneous among states. Estimation of (IRR) suggests that in a scenario of 100% of social isolation incidence of COVID-19 will have reached approximately only 2.6% of the magnitude compared to when there is no social isolation for Brazil (CI 95% 0.8 - 8.3). Only a 10% increase in SII in the country could have reflected in a 30.5% decrease of number of cases in 14 days. Adoption of physical distancing was associated with test coverage (IRR 0.976, CI 95% 0.973-0.979), Home Office (IRR 1.042, CI 95% 1.039 - 1.046), informal work proportion (IRR 0.961, CI 95% 0.958 - 0.965), political spectrum (IRR 0.961, CI 95% 0.958 - 0.965) and early moment of restrictive politics implementation (IRR 1.017, CI 95% 1.013 - 1.021). Conclusion: Physical distancing measures play a crucial role in mitigating the pandemic's spread. These analyses are crucial to support government decisions and improve the community's adherence to preventive measures. Keywords: Brazil; COVID-19; Incidence; Physical Distancing; Time-Series.

参考サイト PubMed: covid-19

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8月 17, 2020 bioassociates2


2020年7月8日にオンラインでプレプリントポータルbioRxivに掲載された査読されていないプレプリント論文で、フランスのパリのキュリー研究所の研究者らは、SARS-CoV-2ウイルスのSスパイクタンパク質が結合する表面受容体ACE2(アンギオテンシン変換酵素2)を持つ細胞外小胞( extracellular vesicles )が、侵入するウイルスにデコイとして機能する可能性があることを報告した。 この細胞外小胞は、in vitroでSARS-Co-V2…

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